ANALISIS VARIABEL-VARIABEL YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH (PAD) PROVINSI BALI

Abstract

ABSTRAK

Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh pertumbuhan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara, tingkat investasi dan PDRB (Produk Domestik Regional Bruto) sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran terhadap Pendpatan Asli Daerah (PAD) Provinsi Bali Periode 1991-2009 baik secara simultan maupun parsial, dan prospek perkembangan Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) Provinsi Bali Periode 2010-2014.

Teknik analisis menggunakan analisis regresi linear berganda, di mana prospek perkembangan Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) dijawab melalui model analisis ARIMA (Autoregresive Integrated Moving Avarage). Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan, tingkat investasi, PDRB (Produk Domestik Regional Bruto) sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran berpengaruh positif terhadap Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) Provinsi Bali Periode 1991-2009. Dan prospek perkembangan Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) Provinsi Bali Periode 2010-2014 terus mengalami peningkatan.

Kata kunci : PAD, Kunjungan wisatawan, investasi, PDRB

ABSTRACT

This research analyzed the influence of growth number of tourist arrivals, the level of invesment, gross regional domestik product sector trade, hotels and restaurants of the local own revenue the Province of Bali Period 1991-2009 either simultaneously or partial, and the prospects for development of the local own revenue the Province of Bali Period 2010-2014.

Analysis techniques using multiple linear regression analysis. Where the prospects for development of the local own revenue answered through the analysis model Autoregresive Integrated Moving Avarage (ARIMA). Estimation result indicate that growth the number of tourist arrivals, the level of invesment, gross regional domestik product sector trade, hotels and restaurants positively affected the local own revenue Bali Province from 1991 to 2009 period. And the prospects for development of the local own revenue of the Bali Provincial will continue to increase in 2010-2014.

Key word: PAD, tourist arrivals, invesment, PDRB