Pengaruh Perubahan Iklim dan Bencana Alam terhadap Kriminalitas di Indonesia
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Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat efek yang ditimbulkan oleh perubahan iklim dan bencana alam terhadap berbagai kriminalitas yang terjadi di Indonesia. Sumber data yang digunakan adalah survei potensi desa (Podes) 2018 yang bersumber dari BPS, serta sumber data lain yang berasal dari Badan Metereologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) dan Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB). Sampel dalam penelitian ini berjumlah 83.931 desa/kelurahan di Indonesia. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Ordinary Least Square (OLS) untuk menguji dan penganalisis pengaruh perubahan iklim dan bencana alam terhadap kriminalitas. Faktor perubahan iklim yang digunakan antara lain suhu minimum, suhu maksimum, curah hujan, polusi air, dan polusi udara. Sedangkan faktor bencana alam antara lain tanah longsor, banjir, gempa bumi, gelombang laut, angin topan, kebakaran hutan, korban bencana, kerusakan rumah, dan kerusakan fasilitas umum. Secara umum suhu maksimum berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan (1%) terhadap konflik, namun berpengaruh positif dan signifikan (1%) terhadap kejahatan. Bencana banjir berpengaruh positif dan signifikan (1%) terhadap konflik dan kejahatan di Indonesia.
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