ANALISIS PERUBAHAN VOLUME PERDAGANGAN SAHAM DAN ABNORMAL RETURN SEBELUM DAN SESUDAH PEMILU LEGISLATIF 9 APRIL 2014 (EVENT STUDY PADA SEKTOR-SEKTOR INDUSTRI DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA)

Abstrak

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perbedaan rata-rata aktivitas volume perdagangan dan abnormal return pada saham sektor industri sebelum dan sesudah pemilu legislatif 2014 pada tanggal 4 April sampai dengan 14 April 2014. Penelitian ini menggunakan event study, dimana dilakukan pengamatan terhadap rata-rata aktivitas volume perdagangan saham dan rata-rata abnormal return selama 3 hari sebelum, event date, dan 3 hari sesudah peristiwa pemilu legislatif. Metode penentuan sampel menggunakan purposive sampling. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini meliputi harga saham penutupan harian, IHSG, volume perdagangan saham harian, dan jumlah saham yang beredar. Return ekspektasi menggunakan model disesuaikan pasar (market adjusted model). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan: (1) Berdasarkan uji statistik terhadap rata-rata aktivitas volume perdagangan saham selama periode peristiwa, ditemukan bahwa tidak terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan rata-rata aktivitas volume perdagangan saham sebelum dan sesudah peristiwa pemilu legislatif. (2) Berdasarkan uji statistik terhadap rata-rata abnormal return saham selama periode peristiwa, ditemukan bahwa tidak terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan rata-rata abnormal return sebelum dan sesudah peristiwa pemilu legislatif.
Kata Kunci : Volume Perdagangan, Abnormal Return, Pemilu Legislatif 2014

This study was aimed at analyzing the difference in the average of trade volume and abnormal return in industrial sector stocks before and after April the 9th 2014 legislative election. This study used an event study, in which observation was made of the average of activities in trade volume and abnormal return within 3 days before the event date and 3 days after the event date (the legislative election). The sampling method used was purposive sampling. The data used consisted of prices of stocks at daily closing, stock price index, daily stock trade volume, and the number of current stocks. The return expectation used market adjusted model. The results showed (1) based on statistical testing of the average of stock trade volume activities for the event period, it was found that there was no significant difference in average of activities of stock trade volume before and after the legislative election event, (2) based on the statistical testing of the average of abnormal return during the event period, it was found that there was no significant difference in abnormal return before and after the legislative election event.
keyword : Trade Volume, Abnormal Return, the 2014 Legislative Election